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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Tulsa on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620 7h 26m 99% 91%
AmericanDetails → MCO 07:49 → CLT 09:36AA 461 2h 58m Charlotte CLT 12:34 → TUL 14:16AA 2657 7h 27m 100% 90%
AmericanDetails → MCO 16:42 → ORD 18:52AA 1782 3h 13m Chicago ORD 22:05 → TUL 00:06 +1AA 4281 · flown by Envoy 8h 24m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MCO 12:05 → ATL 13:45DL 1658 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 6h 59m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → MCO 08:26 → DFW 10:28AA 2961 3h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:19 → TUL 15:37AA 2851 8h 11m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677 1h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:44 → TUL 10:05AA 2348 5h 35m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → MCO 17:45 → ATL 19:47DL 1150 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 22:18 → TUL 23:19DL 2043 6h 34m 94% 81%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:48 → LGA 13:24DL 1164 3h 26m New York LGA 16:50 → TUL 19:04DL 4630 · flown by Endeavor 9h 16m 99% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON