tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1039 at 11:29 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1039 Southwest MCO 11:29 TYS 13:23 9% 2% 0.9% no record
G4 2718 Allegiant MCO 12:57 TYS 14:44 19% 5% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → TYS 11:10DL 1743 5h 40m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:05 → ATL 10:45DL 1505 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 13:52 → TYS 14:48DL 1148 5h 43m 99% 91%
AmericanDetails → MCO 07:04 → CLT 08:54AA 1647 2h 17m Charlotte CLT 11:11 → TYS 12:34AA 5953 · flown by Piedmont 5h 30m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCO 17:45 → ATL 19:47DL 1150 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → TYS 00:02 +1DL 3072 6h 17m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCO 11:05 → ATL 12:42DL 1213 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 16:16 → TYS 17:16DL 2571 6h 11m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → MCO 07:30 → DFW 09:29AA 599 1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:43 → TYS 14:06AA 2544 6h 36m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494 51m Atlanta ATL 08:49 → TYS 09:48DL 5252 · flown by Endeavor 3h 33m 95% 85%
AmericanDetails → MCO 09:30 → DFW 11:24AA 2075 2h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:32 → TYS 16:56AA 2550 7h 26m 97% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MCO 17:19 → IAH 18:58UA 1872 52m Houston IAH 19:50 → TYS 23:12UA 6206 · flown by Mesa 5h 53m 72% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON