Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 4714 at 07:00, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 4714 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MDT 07:00	BOS 08:31	5%	2%	0.6%	96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDT 06:04 → ATL 08:02DL 1255	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855	6h 41m	99%	92%
United Details →	MDT 06:30 → ORD 07:42UA 2684	1h 43m Chicago	ORD 09:25 → BOS 12:57UA 1367	6h 27m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	MDT 18:22 → ATL 20:35DL 2857	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865	6h 58m	98%	89%
American Details →	MDT 07:56 → CLT 09:29AA 6001 · flown by Piedmont	3h 00m Charlotte	CLT 12:29 → BOS 14:52AA 1140	6h 56m	100%	88%
American Details →	MDT 06:06 → CLT 07:39AA 6070 · flown by Piedmont	2h 35m Charlotte	CLT 10:14 → BOS 12:30AA 2263	6h 24m	96%	87%
American Details →	MDT 08:37 → PHL 09:44AA 6056 · flown by Piedmont	3h 12m Philadelphia	PHL 12:56 → BOS 14:37AA 3186	6h 00m	99%	86%
American Details →	MDT 09:48 → CLT 11:29AA 5638 · flown by PSA	2h 58m Charlotte	CLT 14:27 → BOS 16:58AA 901	7h 10m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MDT 11:41 → ATL 13:42DL 1248	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → BOS 18:00DL 2595	6h 19m	98%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON