Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5638 MDT 09:48 → CLT 11:29 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest PT 5953 MDT 14:31 → CLT 16:08 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5638 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MDT 09:48	CLT 11:29	6%	3%	0.7%	88%
AA 3028 American	MDT 11:18	CLT 12:58	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 6070 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	MDT 06:06	CLT 07:39	8%	3%	0.8%	87%
AA 6001 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	MDT 07:56	CLT 09:29	10%	3%	0.8%	78%
PT 5828 Piedmont	MDT 12:56	CLT 14:33	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
PT 5841 Piedmont	MDT 16:17	CLT 17:52	12%	3%	0.9%	no record
PT 5953 Piedmont	MDT 14:31	CLT 16:08	14%	3%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON