Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 11:41, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time.

Nonstops that day


AA 977 American Flight history →	MDT 07:05	DFW 09:31	6%	3%	0.7%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Harrisburg). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDT 06:04 → ATL 08:02DL 1255	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 09:52 → DFW 11:12DL 961	6h 08m	98%	91%
United Details →	MDT 06:30 → ORD 07:42UA 2684	2h 47m Chicago	ORD 10:29 → DFW 13:12UA 441	7h 42m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MDT 18:22 → ATL 20:35DL 2857	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → DFW 00:13 +1DL 818	6h 51m	99%	89%
American Details →	MDT 07:56 → CLT 09:29AA 6001 · flown by Piedmont	3h 40m Charlotte	CLT 13:09 → DFW 14:53AA 1690	7h 57m	100%	89%
American Details →	MDT 06:06 → CLT 07:39AA 6070 · flown by Piedmont	1h 35m Charlotte	CLT 09:14 → DFW 11:02AA 575	5h 56m	97%	88%
American Details →	MDT 08:37 → PHL 09:44AA 6056 · flown by Piedmont	3h 08m Philadelphia	PHL 12:52 → DFW 15:31AA 415	7h 54m	99%	88%
American Details →	MDT 09:48 → CLT 11:29AA 5638 · flown by PSA	3h 35m Charlotte	CLT 15:04 → DFW 16:58AA 1709	8h 10m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MDT 11:41 → ATL 13:42DL 1248	48m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → DFW 15:45DL 921	5h 04m	94%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON