Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 739 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 739 MDT 05:59 → ORD 06:59 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3243 MDT 19:45 → ORD 21:16 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 739 American	MDT 05:59	ORD 06:59	13%	7%	2.3%	no record
UA 2684 United Flight history →	MDT 06:30	ORD 07:42	13%	5%	1.6%	85%
YX 3516 Republic	MDT 14:08	ORD 15:27	24%	9%	1.8%	no record
MQ 4212 Envoy	MDT 12:35	ORD 13:46	25%	10%	1.9%	no record
OO 6054 SkyWest	MDT 10:39	ORD 11:39	27%	12%	2.5%	no record
UA 2134 United	MDT 17:48	ORD 18:54	30%	12%	1.6%	no record
AA 3243 American Flight history →	MDT 19:45	ORD 21:16	31%	15%	3.1%	62%
UA 4185 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	MDT 10:40	ORD 11:56	6%	3%	0.0%	94%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON