Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 4133 at 10:34, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4133 Southwest	MDW 10:34	ABQ 12:35	5%	1%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 14:21 → MSP 15:51DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	2h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 18:11 → ABQ 19:55DL 730	6h 34m	97%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON