Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1285 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 1285 MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 4678 MDW 20:12 → ATL 22:57 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1285 Delta Flight history →	MDW 06:00	ATL 08:57	5%	2%	1.2%	90%
WN 2828 Southwest	MDW 08:44	ATL 11:45	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
DL 1063 Delta Flight history →	MDW 11:05	ATL 14:01	10%	3%	1.1%	90%
DL 1728 Delta Flight history →	MDW 17:10	ATL 20:23	11%	4%	0.8%	74%
DL 2417 Delta Flight history →	MDW 12:41	ATL 15:43	11%	4%	1.0%	86%
WN 487 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 12:46	ATL 15:47	12%	3%	0.7%	100%worse than usual
WN 235 Southwest	MDW 15:48	ATL 18:48	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
F9 2292 Frontier Flight history →	MDW 06:05	ATL 09:22	14%	6%	1.4%	71%
WN 4678 Southwest	MDW 20:12	ATL 22:57	17%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON