Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4969 at 08:35 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 4969 MDW 08:35 → CLE 10:56 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 374 MDW 18:33 → CLE 20:50 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4969 Southwest	MDW 08:35	CLE 10:56	6%	2%	1.2%	no record
WN 3666 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 12:31	CLE 14:52	10%	3%	0.9%	90%
WN 3643 Southwest	MDW 16:13	CLE 18:34	13%	5%	0.9%	no record
WN 374 Southwest	MDW 18:33	CLE 20:50	17%	5%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON