Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4932 Southwest	MDW 08:49	CLT 11:36	11%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 4247 Southwest	MDW 18:11	CLT 20:57	15%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:23DL 1728	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177	5h 48m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → CLT 11:26DL 3190	4h 26m	95%	88%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	2h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 14:30 → CLT 18:02DL 2820	7h 08m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → CLT 19:21DL 3158	7h 16m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor	2h 30m Detroit	DTW 14:05 → CLT 15:55DL 1429	5h 38m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 18:59 → CLT 20:11DL 2132	6h 30m	98%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON