Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2706 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 2706 MDW 05:56 → DAL 08:13 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1005 MDW 20:07 → DAL 22:23 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2706 Southwest	MDW 05:56	DAL 08:13	3%	1%	1.3%	no record
WN 966 Southwest	MDW 13:59	DAL 16:12	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 199 Southwest	MDW 08:16	DAL 10:27	11%	2%	1.2%	no record
WN 1356 Southwest	MDW 15:14	DAL 17:26	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 2711 Southwest	MDW 19:11	DAL 21:31	13%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 1148 Southwest	MDW 11:14	DAL 13:24	15%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 1005 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 20:07	DAL 22:23	16%	4%	0.8%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON