Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2608 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 2608 MDW 06:06 → DCA 09:02 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 336 MDW 16:18 → DCA 19:14 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2608 Southwest	MDW 06:06	DCA 09:02	4%	1%	1.3%	no record
WN 1295 Southwest	MDW 08:24	DCA 11:21	9%	3%	1.2%	no record
WN 3946 Southwest	MDW 12:54	DCA 15:50	15%	5%	0.9%	no record
WN 120 Southwest	MDW 11:06	DCA 14:02	16%	4%	1.0%	no record
WN 4931 Southwest	MDW 20:24	DCA 23:12	17%	5%	0.9%	no record
WN 336 Southwest	MDW 16:18	DCA 19:14	19%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON