Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2717 at 06:36 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 2717 MDW 06:36 → DEN 08:06 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2721 MDW 17:56 → DEN 19:29 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2717 Southwest	MDW 06:36	DEN 08:06	7%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 271 Southwest	MDW 10:09	DEN 11:40	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2719 Southwest	MDW 11:56	DEN 13:28	12%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 155 Southwest	MDW 21:16	DEN 22:40	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2718 Southwest	MDW 14:13	DEN 15:45	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 274 Southwest	MDW 15:47	DEN 17:19	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2721 Southwest	MDW 17:56	DEN 19:29	21%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON