Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3086 Southwest	MDW 10:23	DSM 11:42	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4942 Southwest	MDW 20:26	DSM 21:46	13%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 12:25 → DSM 13:34DL 2094	7h 34m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	MDW 10:17 → MSP 11:47DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	1h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 13:17 → DSM 14:33DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor	4h 16m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	MDW 10:43 → ATL 13:48DL 1063	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086	7h 09m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:12 → DTW 15:25DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	1h 12m Detroit	DTW 16:37 → DSM 17:27DL 5345 · flown by Endeavor	4h 15m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:23DL 1728	52m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DSM 22:29DL 2306	5h 19m	93%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON