tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2726 Southwest MDW 08:34 FLL 12:28 12% 4% 1.0% no record
WN 4269 Southwest MDW 18:13 FLL 22:05 19% 4% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512 5h 23m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:23DL 1728 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 22:45 → FLL 00:39 +1DL 1229 6h 29m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 17:45 → FLL 19:43DL 1670 7h 38m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417 56m Atlanta ATL 16:39 → FLL 18:40DL 1295 4h 59m 86% 70%
DeltaDetails → MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor 55m Detroit DTW 12:30 → FLL 15:34DL 1294 5h 17m 84% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON