Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1685 Southwest	MDW 10:14	ICT 12:05	6%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 4960 Southwest	MDW 20:32	ICT 22:24	15%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wichita on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 11:14 → ICT 12:33DL 828	6h 33m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 16:31 → ICT 17:47DL 2128	6h 42m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	MDW 10:17 → MSP 11:47DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	1h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 13:19 → ICT 15:11DL 3807 · flown by SkyWest	4h 54m	98%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON