tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4768 Southwest MDW 10:18 IND 12:17 6% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 2738 Southwest MDW 20:41 IND 22:41 11% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013 5h 36m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063 2h 00m Atlanta ATL 16:01 → IND 17:42DL 2979 5h 37m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:23DL 1728 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 23:04 → IND 00:41 +1DL 2657 6h 31m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 17:35 → IND 19:10DL 3120 5h 29m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor 1h 20m Minneapolis MSP 12:55 → IND 15:33DL 2910 4h 39m 93% 87%
DeltaDetails → MDW 13:26 → DTW 15:44DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor 1h 58m Detroit DTW 17:42 → IND 19:00DL 5034 · flown by Endeavor 4h 34m 90% 59%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MDW 18:58 → DTW 21:19DL 4690 · flown by Endeavor 1h 31m Detroit DTW 22:50 → IND 00:07 +1DL 5095 · flown by Endeavor 4h 09m 73% 51%
DeltaDetails → MDW 19:06 → MSP 20:51DL 4713 · flown by Endeavor 49m Minneapolis MSP 21:40 → IND 00:16 +1DL 674 4h 10m 52% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON