Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 3126 at 17:53, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3126 Southwest	MDW 17:53	JAX 21:07	15%	3%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 12:37 → JAX 13:45DL 3024	6h 45m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 18:13 → JAX 19:30DL 2315	5h 49m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:23DL 1728	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → JAX 00:09 +1DL 2276	5h 59m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MDW 10:17 → MSP 11:47DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	1h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 12:57 → JAX 16:54DL 2392	5h 37m	94%	85%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	1h 19m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → JAX 16:35DL 2720	4h 30m	97%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON