Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4772 at 12:20 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 4772 MDW 12:20 → LAX 14:48 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 997 MDW 17:42 → LAX 19:51 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4772 Southwest	MDW 12:20	LAX 14:48	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 865 Southwest	MDW 10:19	LAX 12:43	9%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 997 Southwest	MDW 17:42	LAX 19:51	18%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON