Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4525 at 05:08 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 4525 MDW 05:08 → LGA 08:10 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4236 MDW 17:45 → LGA 20:53 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4525 Southwest	MDW 05:08	LGA 08:10	4%	1%	2.8%	no record
WN 802 Southwest	MDW 07:17	LGA 10:25	11%	3%	3.5%	no record
WN 3010 Southwest	MDW 09:34	LGA 12:41	19%	5%	5.3%	no record
WN 1582 Southwest	MDW 19:04	LGA 22:11	32%	9%	1.7%	no record
WN 4797 Southwest	MDW 13:22	LGA 16:23	34%	13%	3.2%	no record
WN 2751 Southwest	MDW 15:04	LGA 18:05	38%	15%	2.5%	no record
WN 4236 Southwest	MDW 17:45	LGA 20:53	43%	14%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON