Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 3–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4239 MDW 07:13 → MCI 08:40 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2757 MDW 20:38 → MCI 22:06 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4239 Southwest	MDW 07:13	MCI 08:40	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 8502 Southwest	MDW 07:24	MCI 08:52	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2755 Southwest	MDW 08:53	MCI 10:20	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 615 Southwest	MDW 10:37	MCI 12:05	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 875 Southwest	MDW 14:49	MCI 16:17	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2754 Southwest	MDW 16:12	MCI 17:40	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2757 Southwest	MDW 20:38	MCI 22:06	9%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON