Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4258 Southwest	MDW 10:09	MEM 11:47	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4975 Southwest	MDW 20:41	MEM 22:18	10%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	6h 32m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 16:41 → MEM 17:09DL 1681	6h 04m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MDW 10:17 → MSP 11:47DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	3h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 15:45 → MEM 17:52DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest	7h 35m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:23DL 1728	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MEM 23:24DL 2501	6h 14m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 17:53 → MEM 18:16DL 2939	5h 35m	99%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON