Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 188 MDW 09:30 → PHX 11:11 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 454 MDW 17:22 → PHX 19:05 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 188 Southwest	MDW 09:30	PHX 11:11	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1181 Southwest	MDW 11:04	PHX 12:47	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4249 Southwest	MDW 13:53	PHX 15:37	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 965 Southwest	MDW 15:20	PHX 17:03	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2796 Southwest	MDW 20:20	PHX 22:04	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 454 Southwest	MDW 17:22	PHX 19:05	13%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON