Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 975 at 11:59, with a 2% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 975 Southwest	MDW 11:59	RIC 14:57	2%	1%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → RIC 11:56DL 2650	4h 56m	98%	93%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 18:32 → RIC 20:15DL 1263	6h 34m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 17:12 → RIC 18:53DL 1348	6h 48m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:23DL 1728	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → RIC 00:51 +1DL 1175	6h 41m	99%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON