tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4034 Southwest MDW 08:54 RSW 12:39 10% 2% 1.3% no record
WN 2813 Southwest MDW 18:04 RSW 21:47 19% 4% 1.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Myers is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 12:53 → RSW 14:35DL 1196 7h 35m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:23DL 1728 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → RSW 00:23 +1DL 1217 6h 13m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor 2h 53m Detroit DTW 14:28 → RSW 17:22DL 1225 7h 05m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063 3h 06m Atlanta ATL 17:07 → RSW 18:55DL 1124 6h 50m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 19:28 → RSW 21:13DL 1736 7h 32m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor 1h 17m Minneapolis MSP 12:52 → RSW 17:19DL 2219 6h 25m 92% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON