tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4843 Southwest MDW 10:29 SFO 12:53 17% 6% 0.8% no record
WN 4984 Southwest MDW 19:09 SFO 21:36 26% 8% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor 3h 32m Minneapolis MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756 9h 18m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SFO 19:57DL 495 10h 52m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285 1h 02m Atlanta ATL 09:59 → SFO 11:55DL 672 7h 55m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:23DL 1728 1h 32m Atlanta ATL 21:55 → SFO 23:49DL 656 8h 39m 94% 79%
DeltaDetails → MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 19:38 → SFO 21:38DL 681 10h 57m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → MDW 13:49 → MSP 15:33DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor 3h 17m Minneapolis MSP 18:50 → SFO 20:57DL 2809 9h 08m 94% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MDW 19:06 → MSP 20:51DL 4713 · flown by Endeavor 59m Minneapolis MSP 21:50 → SFO 23:53DL 2089 6h 47m 61% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON