Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4803 at 10:03 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4803 Southwest	MDW 10:03	SLC 12:25	10%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 2833 Southwest	MDW 20:54	SLC 23:16	21%	5%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	2h 50m Minneapolis	MSP 14:25 → SLC 16:16DL 2658	7h 22m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	8h 50m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → SLC 20:02DL 653	9h 57m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 19:34 → SLC 21:37DL 660	9h 56m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:23DL 1728	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → SLC 00:26 +1DL 453	8h 16m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:49 → MSP 15:33DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	2h 40m Minneapolis	MSP 18:13 → SLC 20:07DL 2607	7h 18m	89%	77%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:26 → DTW 15:44DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	1h 56m Detroit	DTW 17:40 → SLC 19:34DL 765	7h 08m	89%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON