Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 250 at 13:44, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 250 Southwest	MDW 13:44	SRQ 17:20	14%	3%	3.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 18:17 → SRQ 19:56DL 3109	6h 15m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104	4h 44m	98%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON