Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 600 at 07:28 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 600 MDW 07:28 → TPA 11:04 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4657 MDW 17:59 → TPA 21:34 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 600 Southwest	MDW 07:28	TPA 11:04	9%	2%	1.2%	no record
WN 1432 Southwest	MDW 12:36	TPA 16:12	10%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 4657 Southwest	MDW 17:59	TPA 21:34	22%	4%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON