Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 2844 Southwest	MDW 10:28	TUL 12:17	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1434 Southwest	MDW 21:32	TUL 23:22	7%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620	5h 56m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837	6h 59m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:23DL 1728	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 22:18 → TUL 23:19DL 2043	6h 09m	98%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON