tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3157 Southwest MEM 08:19 BNA 09:22 3% 1% 0.4% no record
WN 717 Southwest MEM 14:31 BNA 15:34 10% 2% 0.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666 3h 47m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 6h 15m 99% 94%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624 1h 13m Atlanta ATL 09:57 → BNA 10:09DL 1155 3h 49m 97% 92%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370 2h 58m Detroit DTW 12:25 → BNA 13:03DL 1557 6h 31m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 14:26 → BNA 14:39DL 790 5h 12m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MEM 08:27 → ATL 10:51DL 5247 · flown by Endeavor 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159 5h 36m 98% 90%
AmericanDetails → MEM 06:46 → CLT 09:41AA 978 2h 18m Charlotte CLT 11:59 → BNA 12:28AA 2409 5h 42m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MEM 10:36 → ATL 12:54DL 2071 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 15:13 → BNA 15:26DL 3142 4h 50m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → MEM 06:20 → ORD 08:29AA 3758 · flown by Envoy 2h 56m Chicago ORD 11:25 → BNA 13:07AA 2362 6h 47m 98% 89%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON