Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, DL 5604 at 06:00, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 5604 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MEM 06:00	BOS 10:01	6%	2%	0.5%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855	6h 30m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	MEM 07:03 → LGA 11:09DL 5607 · flown by Republic	2h 50m New York	LGA 13:59 → BOS 15:23DL 5739 · flown by Republic	7h 20m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862	6h 27m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	MEM 16:21 → ATL 18:51DL 1700	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865	7h 59m	99%	90%
United Details →	MEM 06:00 → EWR 09:43UA 3642 · flown by Republic	2h 16m Newark	EWR 11:59 → BOS 13:16UA 1669	6h 16m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → BOS 16:45DL 726	6h 18m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest	1h 51m Minneapolis	MSP 10:05 → BOS 13:51DL 2655	6h 51m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	MEM 11:45 → ATL 14:16DL 82	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 18:15 → BOS 21:00DL 821	8h 15m	100%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON