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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Baltimore on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666 1h 21m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → BWI 10:47DL 801 4h 32m 98% 93%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711 5h 41m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799 5h 26m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:00 → BOS 10:01DL 5604 · flown by Republic 1h 09m Boston BOS 11:10 → BWI 12:53DL 5668 · flown by Republic 5h 53m 96% 92%
AmericanDetails → MEM 06:20 → ORD 08:29AA 3758 · flown by Envoy 1h 44m Chicago ORD 10:13 → BWI 13:25AA 4253 · flown by Envoy 6h 05m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → MEM 12:09 → MSP 14:22DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest 3h 32m Minneapolis MSP 17:54 → BWI 21:29DL 2918 8h 20m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MEM 10:36 → ATL 12:54DL 2071 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → BWI 17:15DL 1267 5h 39m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → MEM 07:25 → ORD 09:30UA 247 1h 21m Chicago ORD 10:51 → BWI 13:57UA 2653 5h 32m 97% 88%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON