Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 5–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 978 MEM 06:46 → CLT 09:41 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest OH 5398 MEM 17:51 → CLT 20:42 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 978 American Flight history →	MEM 06:46	CLT 09:41	5%	3%	0.7%	90%
AA 1846 American Flight history →	MEM 08:16	CLT 11:07	6%	3%	0.7%	88%
AA 1790 American Flight history →	MEM 11:58	CLT 14:47	10%	3%	0.7%	95%
AA 1636 American	MEM 15:19	CLT 18:09	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
OH 5398 PSA	MEM 17:51	CLT 20:42	15%	4%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON