Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1940 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 1940 MEM 05:40 → DFW 07:23 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1929 MEM 18:32 → DFW 20:26 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1940 American Flight history →	MEM 05:40	DFW 07:23	7%	3%	1.4%	89%
AA 1825 American Flight history →	MEM 07:13	DFW 09:14	8%	3%	1.1%	85%
MQ 3528 Envoy	MEM 09:38	DFW 11:22	9%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 1924 American	MEM 07:02	DFW 08:52	10%	4%	1.3%	no record
AA 1086 American Flight history →	MEM 11:59	DFW 13:44	15%	6%	0.9%	71%
AA 3888 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MEM 14:40	DFW 16:22	15%	4%	0.9%	75%
AA 1929 American	MEM 18:32	DFW 20:26	20%	7%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON