Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 2370 Delta Flight history →	MEM 06:32	DTW 09:27	5%	3%	0.5%	89%
DL 1627 Delta	MEM 10:30	DTW 13:30	6%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MEM 06:00 → LGA 09:48AA 4564 · flown by Republic	2h 05m New York	LGA 11:53 → DTW 13:59AA 4339 · flown by Republic	6h 59m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	6h 41m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	MEM 07:03 → LGA 11:09DL 5607 · flown by Republic	1h 46m New York	LGA 12:55 → DTW 14:51DL 1122	6h 48m	99%	92%
American Details →	MEM 06:20 → ORD 08:29AA 3758 · flown by Envoy	1h 33m Chicago	ORD 10:02 → DTW 12:39AA 3977 · flown by Envoy	5h 19m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 13:47 → DTW 15:42DL 1031	5h 15m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MEM 11:45 → ATL 14:16DL 82	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478	7h 28m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	MEM 10:36 → ATL 12:54DL 2071	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:27DL 1005	5h 51m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	MEM 12:09 → MSP 14:22DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest	1h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 16:15 → DTW 18:59DL 1476	5h 50m	98%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON