Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 2–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4068 Southwest	MEM 06:56	HOU 08:35	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4258 Southwest	MEM 12:28	HOU 14:07	7%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	6h 55m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	6h 55m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	MEM 16:21 → ATL 18:51DL 1700	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	5h 30m	98%	85%
American Details →	MEM 14:40 → DFW 16:22AA 3888 · flown by Envoy	2h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:40 → HOU 20:08AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	5h 28m	96%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON