tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:11, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MEM 07:11 → ATL 09:40DL 1624 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 13:24 → LAS 14:48DL 659 9h 37m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → MEM 05:59 → ATL 08:28DL 1666 1h 27m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945 7h 01m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest 2h 56m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238 8h 26m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → MEM 11:45 → ATL 14:15DL 82 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 16:40 → LAS 17:52DL 711 8h 07m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → MEM 10:36 → ATL 12:54DL 2071 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 16:28 → LAS 17:33DL 549 8h 57m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → MEM 06:51 → IAH 08:57UA 6207 · flown by Mesa 2h 58m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 8h 22m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MEM 13:37 → ATL 16:02DL 2778 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 19:34 → LAS 20:49DL 722 9h 12m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MEM 07:15 → SLC 09:33DL 2290 2h 47m Salt Lake City SLC 12:20 → LAS 12:51DL 1659 7h 36m 99% 89%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON