Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 3–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4564 MEM 06:00 → LGA 09:48 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest YX 5605 MEM 16:57 → LGA 21:03 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4564 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MEM 06:00	LGA 09:48	3%	2%	0.7%	87%
DL 5607 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MEM 07:03	LGA 11:09	5%	2%	0.7%	81%
DL 4903 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MEM 11:19	LGA 15:14	7%	4%	0.7%	75%
AA 4807 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MEM 14:34	LGA 18:40	10%	4%	0.8%	66%
YX 5605 Republic	MEM 16:57	LGA 21:03	13%	5%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON