Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 2851 Southwest	MEM 05:59	MDW 07:41	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4662 Southwest	MEM 15:28	MDW 17:09	8%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest	3h 52m Minneapolis	MSP 12:06 → MDW 13:47DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	7h 47m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370	2h 43m Detroit	DTW 12:10 → MDW 12:33DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	6h 01m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 41m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MEM 12:09 → MSP 14:22DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest	2h 39m Minneapolis	MSP 17:01 → MDW 18:42DL 4714 · flown by Endeavor	6h 33m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	6h 48m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MEM 16:21 → ATL 18:51DL 1700	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	5h 54m	98%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON