Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 1340 at 08:56, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 1340 American Flight history →	MEM 08:56	MIA 12:26	11%	5%	1.2%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	4h 42m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	5h 42m	99%	89%
American Details →	MEM 06:00 → LGA 09:48AA 4564 · flown by Republic	1h 16m New York	LGA 11:04 → MIA 14:10AA 2378	7h 10m	98%	85%
American Details →	MEM 06:46 → CLT 09:40AA 978	1h 22m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	5h 25m	96%	84%
American Details →	MEM 06:20 → ORD 08:29AA 3758 · flown by Envoy	1h 30m Chicago	ORD 09:59 → MIA 14:08AA 2689	6h 48m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:33DL 1323	5h 06m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest	50m Minneapolis	MSP 09:04 → MIA 13:39DL 793	6h 39m	92%	81%
Delta Details →	MEM 18:15 → ATL 20:43DL 1681	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	5h 40m	97%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON