tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Phoenix on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest 3h 18m Minneapolis MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274 8h 46m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 8h 48m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MEM 07:15 → SLC 09:33DL 2290 1h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431 6h 57m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → MEM 05:40 → DFW 07:23AA 1940 2h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:47 → PHX 10:54AA 2315 7h 14m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370 3h 20m Detroit DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813 9h 18m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → MEM 06:46 → CLT 09:41AA 978 1h 56m Charlotte CLT 11:37 → PHX 12:56AA 588 8h 10m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → MEM 08:16 → CLT 11:07AA 1846 3h 30m Charlotte CLT 14:37 → PHX 16:07AA 1711 9h 51m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149 1h 44m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366 6h 51m 98% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON