Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, OO 3124 at 16:24, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OO 3124 SkyWest	MFR 16:24	LAX 18:27	9%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 2329 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	MFR 16:34	LAX 18:35	21%	10%	0.0%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MFR 05:15 → SLC 08:08DL 3769 · flown by SkyWest	3h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829	7h 12m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	MFR 06:15 → SEA 07:52DL 3781 · flown by SkyWest	2h 13m Seattle	SEA 10:05 → LAX 12:55DL 2769	6h 40m	99%	88%
American Details →	MFR 05:15 → PHX 07:42AA 6401 · flown by SkyWest	3h 08m Phoenix	PHX 10:50 → LAX 12:26AA 2027	7h 11m	95%	86%
United Details →	MFR 05:00 → DEN 08:33UA 2185	1h 29m Denver	DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405	6h 34m	96%	86%
United Details →	MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754	2h 58m San Francisco	SFO 18:33 → LAX 19:58UA 1799	5h 47m	99%	84%
Alaska Details →	MFR 15:52 → PDX 16:50AS 2081 · flown by Horizon	3h 27m Portland	PDX 20:17 → LAX 22:37AS 1391	6h 45m	100%	83%
United Details →	MFR 13:10 → DEN 16:43UA 1412	2h 55m Denver	DEN 19:38 → LAX 21:00UA 1460	7h 50m	98%	78%
Alaska Details →	MFR 05:58 → SEA 07:20AS 2452 · flown by Horizon	2h 35m Seattle	SEA 09:55 → LAX 12:23AS 1306	6h 25m	100%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	MFR 15:52 → PDX 16:50AS 2081 · flown by Horizon	47m Portland	PDX 17:37 → LAX 20:09AS 278	4h 17m	72%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON