tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 6401 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → MFR 05:15 PHX 07:42 10% 6% 0.7% 94%
OO 6240 SkyWest MFR 13:28 PHX 15:58 12% 6% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MFR 05:15 → SLC 08:08DL 3769 · flown by SkyWest 3h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431 6h 57m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → MFR 05:00 → DEN 08:33UA 2185 1h 20m Denver DEN 09:53 → PHX 10:56UA 1782 5h 56m 95% 85%
UnitedDetails → MFR 13:10 → DEN 16:43UA 1412 3h 00m Denver DEN 19:43 → PHX 20:47UA 2655 7h 37m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754 3h 23m San Francisco SFO 18:58 → PHX 20:56UA 1375 6h 45m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → MFR 06:15 → SEA 07:52DL 3781 · flown by SkyWest 3h 53m Seattle SEA 11:45 → PHX 14:59DL 2449 8h 44m 99% 79%
AlaskaDetails → MFR 05:50 → SEA 07:20AS 2452 · flown by Horizon 2h 30m Seattle SEA 09:50 → PHX 12:39AS 449 6h 49m 100% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754 50m San Francisco SFO 16:25 → PHX 18:39UA 574 4h 28m 70% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON