tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, OO 3249 at 07:00, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 3249 SkyWest MFR 07:00 SAN 09:12 14% 6% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MFR 05:15 → SLC 08:08DL 3769 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 6h 53m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754 3h 13m San Francisco SFO 18:48 → SAN 20:25UA 1577 6h 14m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → MFR 05:00 → DEN 08:33UA 2185 2h 42m Denver DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940 7h 41m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → MFR 05:15 → PHX 07:42AA 6401 · flown by SkyWest 2h 52m Phoenix PHX 10:34 → SAN 12:01AA 2122 6h 46m 94% 79%
DeltaDetails → MFR 06:15 → SEA 07:52DL 3781 · flown by SkyWest 1h 53m Seattle SEA 09:45 → SAN 12:39DL 2533 6h 24m 98% 79%
AlaskaDetails → MFR 05:15 → PDX 06:14AS 2098 · flown by Horizon 2h 59m Portland PDX 09:13 → SAN 11:39AS 721 6h 24m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → MFR 13:10 → DEN 16:43UA 1412 2h 37m Denver DEN 19:20 → SAN 20:46UA 540 7h 36m 98% 77%
AlaskaDetails → MFR 10:31 → SEA 11:53AS 2114 · flown by Horizon 2h 26m Seattle SEA 14:19 → SAN 16:57AS 765 6h 26m 100% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON