tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1050 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1050 United MFR 05:58 SFO 07:36 6% 9% 0.7% no record
UA 1754 United Flight history → MFR 14:11 SFO 15:35 23% 9% 0.7% 47%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → MFR 15:52 → PDX 16:50AS 2081 · flown by Horizon 2h 10m Portland PDX 19:00 → SFO 20:49AS 1374 4h 57m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → MFR 05:15 → SLC 08:08DL 3769 · flown by SkyWest 2h 52m Salt Lake City SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902 6h 48m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → MFR 06:15 → SEA 07:52DL 3781 · flown by SkyWest 1h 53m Seattle SEA 09:45 → SFO 12:04DL 1412 5h 49m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → MFR 05:00 → DEN 08:33UA 2185 1h 10m Denver DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506 6h 25m 94% 77%
UnitedDetails → MFR 13:10 → DEN 16:43UA 1412 1h 11m Denver DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007 6h 30m 92% 76%
AlaskaDetails → MFR 05:15 → PDX 06:14AS 2098 · flown by Horizon 1h 05m Portland PDX 07:19 → SFO 09:16AS 526 4h 01m 97% 73%
AlaskaDetails → MFR 05:58 → SEA 07:20AS 2452 · flown by Horizon 1h 33m Seattle SEA 08:53 → SFO 11:09AS 528 5h 11m 99% 63%
AlaskaDetails → MFR 10:31 → SEA 11:53AS 2114 · flown by Horizon 1h 27m Seattle SEA 13:20 → SFO 15:31AS 680 5h 00m 92% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON