Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 5–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5035 MHT 05:38 → CLT 08:03 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest OH 5120 MHT 16:42 → CLT 19:04 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5035 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MHT 05:38	CLT 08:03	5%	2%	0.7%	93%
OH 5182 PSA	MHT 07:06	CLT 09:32	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
OH 5591 PSA	MHT 10:10	CLT 12:38	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 5661 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MHT 11:05	CLT 13:27	7%	2%	0.7%	88%
OH 5120 PSA	MHT 16:42	CLT 19:04	10%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON