tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 22%, against 6% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2611 at 13:21, 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2611 Southwest MHT 13:21 MCO 16:23 22% 6% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MHT 06:00 → DCA 07:55AA 5160 · flown by PSA 3h 09m Washington DCA 11:04 → MCO 13:42AA 1153 7h 42m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → MHT 07:14 → ORD 09:10AA 4150 · flown by Envoy 1h 24m Chicago ORD 10:34 → MCO 14:26AA 3293 7h 12m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → MHT 07:35 → PHL 09:14AA 6001 · flown by Piedmont 3h 45m Philadelphia PHL 12:59 → MCO 15:41AA 3153 8h 06m 96% 82%
UnitedDetails → MHT 09:25 → IAD 11:19UA 4857 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 16m Dulles IAD 12:35 → MCO 14:58UA 2206 5h 33m 93% 79%
AmericanDetails → MHT 10:32 → PHL 12:09AA 5976 · flown by Piedmont 2h 04m Philadelphia PHL 14:13 → MCO 16:59AA 2502 6h 27m 97% 73%
AmericanDetails → MHT 12:07 → ORD 13:40AA 3921 · flown by Envoy 1h 28m Chicago ORD 15:08 → MCO 19:05AA 1247 6h 58m 97% 72%
AmericanDetails → MHT 11:06 → CLT 13:28AA 5661 · flown by PSA 51m Charlotte CLT 14:19 → MCO 16:08AA 1611 5h 02m 93% 71%
AmericanDetails → MHT 14:54 → PHL 16:35AA 5840 · flown by Piedmont 3h 23m Philadelphia PHL 19:58 → MCO 22:34AA 1673 7h 40m 97% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MHT 14:37 → IAD 16:35UA 4925 · flown by CommuteAir 47m Dulles IAD 17:22 → MCO 19:45UA 2463 5h 08m 65% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON