Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1249 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 1249 MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 2271 MIA 21:43 → ATL 23:52 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1249 Delta Flight history →	MIA 06:00	ATL 08:01	5%	2%	0.8%	93%
DL 1211 Delta Flight history →	MIA 07:10	ATL 09:10	6%	2%	0.8%	93%
DL 1261 Delta Flight history →	MIA 08:20	ATL 10:20	6%	3%	0.7%	93%
DL 980 Delta	MIA 01:36	ATL 03:38	8%	4%	1.0%	no record
DL 2836 Delta Flight history →	MIA 10:40	ATL 12:48	11%	3%	0.7%	85%
DL 1510 Delta Flight history →	MIA 12:05	ATL 14:12	15%	4%	0.8%	82%
F9 2483 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 05:25	ATL 07:40	15%	5%	1.1%	82%
AA 1046 American Flight history →	MIA 09:24	ATL 11:25	17%	5%	0.7%	80%
DL 1332 Delta Flight history →	MIA 14:09	ATL 16:13	20%	6%	0.8%	75%
DL 1386 Delta Flight history →	MIA 18:00	ATL 20:14	22%	8%	0.9%	59%
DL 1323 Delta Flight history →	MIA 16:50	ATL 18:53	24%	8%	0.9%	59%
AA 1400 American	MIA 21:45	ATL 23:47	26%	10%	1.0%	no record
AA 1368 American Flight history →	MIA 14:15	ATL 16:19	28%	11%	0.8%	63%
AA 1045 American Flight history →	MIA 17:35	ATL 19:41	31%	12%	0.9%	57%
F9 2271 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 21:43	ATL 23:52	31%	12%	1.7%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON