Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 25%, against 13% on a calm day. Safest: AA 812 at 10:12, 14%.

Safest bet that day AA 812 MIA 10:12 → AUS 12:16 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 2344 MIA 19:05 → AUS 21:13 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Weather 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 812 American Flight history →	MIA 10:12	AUS 12:16	14%	4%	0.7%	90%
WN 1653 Southwest	MIA 14:29	AUS 16:22	24%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2629 American Flight history →	MIA 19:40	AUS 21:40	30%	9%	1.3%	73%
DL 2344 Delta Flight history →	MIA 19:05	AUS 21:13	31%	8%	1.2%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON